I have found that I get a lot of emails from clients and those interested I have always got back to them. often in some detail, I felt that my answers may be of some help to all of you.
JB - Using Horsetorque I have had 560 bets for 168 wins in 10 months and 340 units profit which equates to $30K. Not bad starting from a $1000 bank. POT is 25% but for some reason I have this nagging feeling in the back of my head that it is all doomed to fail. Maybe that is because every time I have come up with a punting "system" they have all failed and I end up back at the drawing board. JB
GH - You mail raises plenty of questions, most of them about life and our thoughts about it
You statistics and methods are first class and making 25% on your money is also top draw, nothing plodding about that.
But you yourself raise the key issue, “a niggling concern that it cant last”......this is where quantum physics comes to play..----nothing observed is unaffected by the observer..where attention goes energy flows...i have stated this to many if deep down at the very core of your being you don’t think you can win then you are beaten already...the other factor is that the only thing in life that is constant is change .. My experience is that life just let you tick along for ever doing the same thing without growth or change..I have had amazing runs for 2 years where all I could do was back winners,,then all of a sudden something changes, photos start going against you as does luck in running and you end up having to change your attack...
I have been a pro for ten years and are having my worst year on the punt ever, just cant take a trick...I am in the middle of a great new ebook covering our carnival and when I see the results..ie 142 Black type races in Sydney and Melb this racing year and we have hit 55 on top winners at 100% on turnover yet I have failed to turn a profit
It has certainly confirmed my new theory that you are best to bet in only Black type races
But for you I don’t see any reason to fix something that isnt broken, SR is meaningless its POT that counts and 25% is as good as any pro I know
DS- How do you work out when a horse does a negative split?
GH- WORK OUT A HORSES TIME PER 100M FOR THE WHOLE RACE AND THEN DO THE SAME FOR ITS LAST 4OOM, IF THE TIME PER 100M IS SLOWER FOR THE FINAL SECTIONAL THAN THE OVERALL RACE IT HAS IN MY TERMINOLOGY NEG SPLIT
ES- Those peakers are brilliant what sort of penalty should I impose
GH- We all know how good the peakers are as far as laying them goes and I have seen nothing that disagrees with my initial research that suggests 85% of them get beat at their next start
But it is a little frustrating when a peaker still comes out on top only to get beat
A la Leicester Square today, rated a huge 106 last start 10 points above his confirmed rating of 96, even allowing for a 10 point fall he came out at $2.10, he raced like a peaker and was well beaten
I decided to do some extra research as I wanted to find out what the average drop in rating was, I processed about 5000 runs finding 133 peakers
Of those 133 only 16 improved their rating and of those 16 only 7 won of those 7 winners 4 actually dropped in class
The statistic I found most interesting was the average ratings drop, I thought it would be 10-12 points but it turned out to be a whopping 24 points
I will look to start a penalty in the ratings to better reflect the potency of a poor run following a career peak
SP- You often mention a Neg Split, what does that mean?
GH- A Negative Split is when a horses sectional rating is lower that its Horsetorque Speed rating, it means the horse came home slower than it went out, I dont worry so much over sprint trips but when this happens in a 1400m race or longer and they step up further in trip it is a recipe for laying success as they very rarely win
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GH-Funny day yesterday but Dash For Brains rated at $3.50 paying $13 ensured we ended up on the right side of the ledger
Cheers
PW- Funny ha ha or funny weird, I just can’t seem to get it right....I backed Triple Ken......then insult to injury.....Field Master
GH-If I can give you one piece of advice just don’t bet on Heavy tracks regardless of whether the meeting is rated to it or not, I just put a pen straight through them, over the years I am $1000’s in front by doing it, and at least with Horsetorque you have a number of meetings per day from all around the country especially Perth which races on a good surface 95% of the time, Perth is my most profitable state....took me 3 year to realise that!! my rewards in the West have been Mirranon last week $51, Rouge Dior $13 2 weeks back and Dash For Brains yesterday at $13, Wet tracks bring in the extra dimension of track bias, a horse seemingly drawn perfect in the 4 gate in the morning could turn to the equivalent of the 15 gate later in the day when the rail goes off, and a horse that handles the Heavy one week doesn’t the next plus you get good young horses on the up, well graded but unknown in conditions, variances I can do without, Its hard enough to make a quid as it is.
Last week I tipped Shylocks Daughter and Norsqui as specials in the Heavy at Sandown I didn’t back either of them, watching that hurts a bit, they both won, yesterday I rated Fieldmaster $2 and stayed out, so his getting beat didn’t bother me, but I am sure it did a few clients.
But I have a lot of clients who swear by wet track numbers and have made some big winter killings, people often ask if the information is so good why sell it, but as you well know, they just work too often to ignore regardless of surface, there are so many ways to tackle the numbers, Betfair has created an amazing tool for the astute punter and many of our clients are here just to find false favourites to lay, I suggest you keep actual records of your bets not just the day and how much you won or lost, what grade of race, what distances, what bet type, what surface and what venues, you may be surprised at what you uncover, in will help hone your focus, allowing bigger bets less often but on far more targeted investments
One other thing, you will never get it right. No one ever does, horse racing is a living dynamic and what works one season doesn’t work the next, the horses, you classes, new rules, new distances, new tracks, artificial light, artificial surfaces, the universe will never allow you to stay static, I know there is only one constant in life and that’s change, so you have to do what Clint Eastwood said in Heart Break Ridge “ you adapt you overcome you change”, winning and losing are both sides of the same coin, to become a winner you must know and understand what a loser is, cant know hot without cold....I used say to people “my favourite thing is winning at the races and my 2nd favourite thing is losing at the races”... A lot older and a lot wiser now and my favourite thing is spending time with close family but that’s another story, and it was only when I didn’t really care if I won or lost that I started to win. Funny life’s like that with a lot of things, finding love and golf come readily to mind ......
That’s why I never sell this site based on a “do this and you will win” basis, as the punt is such an individual pursuit, what is a small bet for one is another’s largest bet in a lifetime
Keep up the passion and never stop learning
I hope a little of my punting philosophy helps